I was at a conference about online video today, and someone predicted that in a few years time 80% of the online video content will be professionally produced, because people will get bored of other people's home made stuff(aka User Generated Content)
I totally disagree with this. I think YouTube and other video sites have shown how keen people are to make and share their own content. It really doesn't matter if it's any good or not, because that is a very subjective judgement. People always think that the user generated content is dogs on skateboards, kids hanging around in the park, or similar, but it's actually far more complex, and is driven by interests and passions.
For example... I'm learning the guitar, and I've just discovered the whole subculture of guitar videos online, where people have posted video lessons of how to play different songs, and how to do different techniques.
One site that collates these is TubeGuitar - www.tubeguitar.com To me, trying to learn how to play a blues riff, or the intros to popular songs, this is far better quality content than the professionally produced stuff, and the fact that it is made by enthusiastic amateurs makes it better.
I've only just discovered this subculture and any trawl of YouTube will show that the breadth of material is beyond anything anyone could have imagined a couple of years ago. So will the user generated stuff only make up 20% of this content in a few years time? No chance.
(As a slight aside, this ten minute lesson on playing the blues on ukulele is one of the best things I've ever seen on YouTube. With kids in British schools now being taught the uke in music lessons (instead of recorders and violins), expect some incredible guitar bands in about ten years or so.)
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